Spatial Structures and Spatial Spillovers: A GME Approach

Spatial econometrics is a subdiscipline that have gained a huge popularity in the last twenty years, not only in theoretical econometrics but in empirical studies as well. Basically, spatial econometric methods measure spatial interaction and incorporate spatial structure into regression analysis. The specification of a matrix of spatial weights W plays a crucial role in the estimation of spatial models. The elements of this matrix measure the spatial relationships between two geographical locations i and j, and they are specified exogenously to the model. Several alternatives for W have been proposed in the literature, although binary matrices based on contiguity among locations or distance matrices are the most commons choices. One shortcoming of using this type of matrices for the spatial models is the impossibility of estimating “heterogeneous†spatial spillovers: the typical objective is the estimation of a parameter that measures the average spatial effect of the set of locations analysed. Roughly speaking, this is given by “ill-posed†econometric models where the number of (spatial) parameters to estimate is too large. In this paper, we explore the use of generalized maximum entropy econometrics (GME) to estimate spatial structures. This technique is very attractive in situations where one has to deal with estimation of “ill-posed†or “ill-conditioned†models. We compare by means of Monte Carlo simulations “classical†ML estimators with GME estimators in several situations with different availability of information.

Benchmarking the power of amateur observatories for TTV exoplanets detection

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Roman v. Baluev, et al, ‘Benchmarking the power of amateur observatories for TTV exoplanets detection’, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 450(3): 3101-3113, first published online 9 May 2015. The version of record is available at doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stv788 © 2015 The Authors. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.We perform an analysis of ~80000 photometric measurements for the following 10 stars hosting transiting planets: WASP-2, -4, -5, -52, Kelt-1, CoRoT-2, XO-2, TrES-1, HD 189733, GJ 436. Our analysis includes mainly transit lightcurves from the Exoplanet Transit Database, public photometry from the literature, and some proprietary photometry privately supplied by other authors. Half of these lightcurves were obtained by amateurs. From this photometry we derive 306 transit timing measurements, as well as improved planetary transit parameters. Additionally, for 6 of these 10 stars we present a set of radial velocity measurements obtained from the spectra stored in the HARPS, HARPS-N, and SOPHIE archives using the HARPS-TERRA pipeline. Our analysis of these TTV and RV data did not reveal significant hints of additional orbiting bodies in almost all of the cases. In the WASP-4 case, we found hints of marginally significant TTV signals having amplitude 10-20 sec, although their parameters are model-dependent and uncertain, while radial velocities did not reveal statistically significant Doppler signals.Peer reviewe

A Customized Pigmentation SNP Array Identifies a Novel SNP Associated with Melanoma Predisposition in the SLC45A2 Gene

As the incidence of Malignant Melanoma (MM) reflects an interaction between skin colour and UV exposure, variations in genes implicated in pigmentation and tanning response to UV may be associated with susceptibility to MM. In this study, 363 SNPs in 65 gene regions belonging to the pigmentation pathway have been successfully genotyped using a SNP array. Five hundred and ninety MM cases and 507 controls were analyzed in a discovery phase I. Ten candidate SNPs based on a p-value threshold of 0.01 were identified. Two of them, rs35414 (SLC45A2) and rs2069398 (SILV/CKD2), were statistically significant after conservative Bonferroni correction. The best six SNPs were further tested in an independent Spanish series (624 MM cases and 789 controls). A novel SNP located on the SLC45A2 gene (rs35414) was found to be significantly associated with melanoma in both phase I and phase II (P<0.0001). None of the other five SNPs were replicated in this second phase of the study. However, three SNPs in TYR, SILV/CDK2 and ADAMTS20 genes (rs17793678, rs2069398 and rs1510521 respectively) had an overall p-value<0.05 when considering the whole DNA collection (1214 MM cases and 1296 controls). Both the SLC45A2 and the SILV/CDK2 variants behave as protective alleles, while the TYR and ADAMTS20 variants seem to function as risk alleles. Cumulative effects were detected when these four variants were considered together. Furthermore, individuals carrying two or more mutations in MC1R, a well-known low penetrance melanoma-predisposing gene, had a decreased MM risk if concurrently bearing the SLC45A2 protective variant. To our knowledge, this is the largest study on Spanish sporadic MM cases to date